Great Bend, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

782
FXUS63 KICT 182335
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
635 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

- Showers and storms will linger across southern Kansas into
  this evening. Isolated severe storms are possible with the
  strongest activity with hail and heavy rainfall as the main
  hazards.

- Isolated to widely scattered storms will be possible late
  Friday afternoon into Friday night with more widespread
  activity expected on Saturday night.

- Severe storms likely on Saturday night with damaging winds,
  heavy rainfall, and possible flooding as the primary hazards.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Broad upper troughing is currently stretching across the Northern
Plains into the Great Lakes and the Ohio Valley with a shortwave
trough moving into the northeastern CONUS. Lee troughing is
strengthening over the high Plains with high pressure moving into
eastern Nebraska and eastern Kansas. In our area, zonal flow aloft
persists with elevated storms ongoing mainly south of Highway 50
from 700mb WAA. PWATs are between 1.4 to 1.6 inches across this area
which is around/slightly above the 75th percentile for this time of
year, leading to efficient rainfall with any storm. This activity is
likely to fester into the evening as it shifts south into Oklahoma.
MUCAPE values are between 1500-2000 J/kg with 45-50 kts of effective
shear making the primary hazards hail and heavy rainfall given how
elevated this storms are and DCAPE values under 250 J/kg. As we move
into tonight and Friday, drier conditions look to prevail as high
pressure continues to expand across the Central Plains and Middle
Mississippi Valley. High temperatures will rise into the low to mid
80s on Friday afternoon. Friday afternoon into Friday night, shower
and storm chances will increase mainly in central to south-central
KS as 700mb WAA increases. This activity will likely be isolated to
widely scattered with severe storms not anticipated given the lack
of instability and effective shear.

The main focus for severe weather continues to be Saturday night.
Low-level upslope moisture advection sets up in western Nebraska
into northwestern Kansas on late Saturday afternoon which will
likely result in storm initiation. A frontal boundary looks to push
into northern Kansas by early Saturday night with the bulk shear
vector oriented along the boundary leading storms to grow upscale
quickly. Model guidance suggests around 40 kts of effective shear
with up to 1400 J/kg of DCAPE. The ECMWF and NAM hint at instability
values greater than 2500 J/kg, but the GFS suggests around 1500
J/kg. The LLJ will ramp up Saturday night, aiding to storm
development and instability especially as a shortwave trough
approaches late Saturday night. There is some model discrepancy with
the trajectory of the MCS as the GFS brings it southeast through our
forecast area, whereas other guidance brings it through southern
Nebraska into central Kansas and then continues eastward towards
northern Missouri. Regardless, the main hazards with this activity
will be damaging winds, heavy rainfall, and possible flooding as
PWATs are progged to be greater than 1.8". Its possible for rain
chances to linger in southern to southeast KS as the upper shortwave
slides across the Central Plains on Sunday, though there is quite a
bit of uncertainty depending on how Saturday evolves. If a strong
MCS moves south through our area, it could push an outflow boundary
south of our area which would limit storm chances on Sunday.
Continue to stay tuned as we refine this forecast.

Continuing into next week, drier conditions are likely to prevail
for our area. An upper trough is progged to move into the Northern
Plains on Monday night which may result in rain chances clipping our
area though better chances will remain north and south of Kansas. As
we move towards mid-week, upper ridging will build into the western
CONUS then better rain chances for our area may arrive Wednesday
night as another shortwave trough slides across the region. At this
time, severe weather chances appear to be low. For temperatures,
highs are forecast to be in the low to mid 80s through much of the
work week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 623 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Shower and thunderstorm activity continues across southern
Kansas this evening, and will cause some impacts to KICT, KCNU,
and surrounding locations.

A narrow line of training thunderstorms continues to fester
across south-central Kansas, and it remains just south of KICT.
Will hold onto VCTS for KICT for the next 2-3 hours or so, but
this may need to be extended if storms continue beyond that
point.

Eventually, showers and storms should slowly sink southward into
Oklahoma during the overnight hours, and VFR conditions should
prevail after 09Z.

While not explicitly mentioned in the TAFs during this cycle,
isolated showers and storms may be possible area wide after 18Z
Friday afternoon.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...GC
AVIATION...JC